Front Page - August 2010 The sky is not falling - The sky is not falling

The sky is not falling
By: Crime Prevention Specialist Tim Hammett  08/01/2010
The sky is not falling

It's tricky being a Crime Prevention Specialist. On the one hand, our mission is to help people find the tools they need to reduce their vulnerability to crime, and a big part of this is giving people an accurate picture of what's actually going on. You can't effectively reduce your vulnerability if you don't know what the risks are. On the other hand, part of our mission is to reduce the fear of crime. It's all too easy for misinformation about a particular crime pattern or trend to gain widespread circulation in the community and cause undue or unwarranted anxiety. Unfortunately, when we advise people about the risks, by issuing a crime alert for example, we also raise the public's anxiety level.

    "Burglaries are up in Camden, be sure to lock your doors!" "There's been an increase in robberies, stay alert."  "Scam artists are going door to door, call 911."  We've all heard these alerts and warnings from the police, time after time. After a while it can seem as though crime in our neighborhoods is rampant, unchecked, out of control. This year, there's been a particular concern about an increase in violent crime, both on the Northside and citywide as well. Homicides are way up in the city as compared to last year. We are also seeing modest increases in other violent crimes, such as aggravated assault and robbery, and all of these increases have garnered a lot of media attention, as they should.

    But the real question that concerns most of us is this: "What's the bottom line for me, my family, and my community? What's my and my family's risk? Are my loved ones more or less safe now than they have been in the past?"  While the news media, the neighborhood grapevine, and anecdotal evidence all shape our answers to these questions, they can also be misleading. A look at some statistics for the Camden Community reveals some interesting insights.

    The numbers below are for the seven residential neighborhoods and two industrial areas of the Camden Community. They represent January 1 to July 20, for each of the past five years, (2006-2010). These numbers are for the Part One crimes of Homicide, Rape, Robbery, Aggravated Assault, Burglary, Theft, Auto Theft and Arson. The numbers themselves are from the Minneapolis Police Depart-ment's CrimeMaster mapping program. They may vary slightly from the MPD's official CODEFOR statistics by neighborhood.  

    As the totals show, Part One crimes in Camden are actually down. They are at their lowest level in five years. Part One crimes are down 6% from last year, and maintained a steady downward trend every year since 2006. The overall reduction in Part One crimes from 2006 is 32%. 

    But what about violent crimes? Aren't they actually up from last year? The short answer is yes, indeed they are. As the graph shows, there were 222 Violent Part One crimes reported in Camden as of July 20, while only 209 had been reported for the same period in 2009, for an increase of 6%. But pulling back and looking at previous years, we see that violent crime too is down significantly from where it was in 2006 when there were a total of 284 violent crimes reported as of July 20 of that year, for a 22% reduction. 

    The reduction in Nonviolent Part One crimes is even more pronounced. Nonviolent crimes are down 9% from where they were last year and down by over a third from 2006 with a 35% reduction. 

    Is this to say that everything is great and we can all relax and take a breather? Of course not. No amount of crime is acceptable. One burglary is one burglary too many. All violent crimes are vile acts, and the fact that they are up compared to last year is, and should be, of great concern to us all.

    None the less, the sky is not falling. Through the combined efforts of Camden's residents, businesses, and the MPD, Part One Crimes are down, and they're down significantly.  Even violent crimes, with the exception of last year, are down significantly, and they have been trending down for at least the last five years. A 22% reduction in violent crime from five years ago shows remarkable progress. A 32% reduction in Part One crimes overall does give us reason to hope. The work that we're doing as caring neighbors, as block club members, and as informed citizens is paying off.

    No, the sky is not falling. Work remains to be done and as long as there is one crime victim in Camden, the need will continue. We should never discount the grief of a family who has lost a loved one to violence. As a community, we are all diminished. As long as there are mothers who have to think twice about allowing their kids to play outside, we need to act. Such a status quo is never acceptable. But for the most part, we continue to go to work, raise our children, enjoy our families and our homes. Life rolls on in Camden, and it will continue to as long as there are children, and brothers and sisters, and parents and grandparents, and friends and neighbors who call Camden "home."

 
 

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The sky is not falling



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